Summary
Women’s scores seem to have stabilized at the current level. Over the past three Games, scores have remained pretty much at the same level. A small shift upwards can be seen so maybe they will increase slightly over time, but it’s only a minor change and shouldn’t be emphasized. Final scores remain the same as before, around 102-104 p, which is the same for both men and women. Men’s scores increased with another point from Beijing, but has probably maxed out now. WC scores are around this level so it’s likely that Olympic scores will be too. Final scores have already moved this direction with stabilizing at between 102 and 104 p.
Introduction
In the post How Scores Have Changed Over the Past Five Olympic Games I go through the development of scores over Barcelona, Atlanta, Sydney, Athens and Beijing. That post was used as a reference for predicting scores in the two competitions (men and women) we’ve just seen. In case you are interested in those predictions, have a look at the link above. How the predictions turned out, have a look at the two posts covering the competitions (Women’s and Men’s).
So, since the Air Rifle events have passed and two new champions have been crowned, lets update the chart covering score development. This post will also contain data over final scores to add to the qualification scores previously showed. Even though every Olympics have different final participants competing for the top positions, the scores required to be there are fairly consistent. Yes, some years a shooter or two stand out from the rest in one way or another, but when combining everyone’s scores and looking at it from a population level, a coherent picture emerge. This year fits really well with the others in the sense that exactly what was predicted to happen score wise did, in fact, happen. Overall, scores went up with approximately 1 p in average. Even Women Top 20 was very close at increasing 1 p (19th place had 395). Scores for the next Olympics might be a bit early to predict already, but based on these charts, the men will increase another point and women will stay at the same level (top 20 might tip over and require 395 p). I’m not sure all of this will happen though. Especially the men’s scores will probably even out now. World cup scores are usually in this range and that point towards Olympic scores staying here as well.
Final
The final went as predicted score wise. Women remained stable at the same level as in the previous two Games. The only difference is how close together they are which is very visible in the scatter plot. Interesting to note is the development of final scores. They have increased with 2 p since Barcelona which pretty much equals out to the same distance as in qualification scores. The difference is how unstable this increase has been. That’s not entirely true though; when calculating averages, all scores are included, so any outlier will affect the data and skew the results. Here we can see them in the scatter plot where both Sydney and Beijing had a few scores lower than the rest and therefore lowers the average and increases the standard deviation. Taken those few away, a steady increase up to Athens can be seen. Over the last two Games, scores have remained almost the same. Worth noting is that London have had the most high scores so far with the majority above 102 p.
Scores have remained steady over the last three Games. A small increase can be noted, but nothing significant.
Average and standard deviation for all included shooters.
Men’s competition
Scores increased in the same fashion as seen in previous Games with around 1 p. We are now getting up to levels seen in WC finals and for that reason I think we’ll see the same development as in the women’s competition; scores remaining steady here from now on. What’s interesting in a chart like this is how big the increase has been. The bronze medalist from Beijing would this year end-up in fifth place, and a bronze in Athens would in London give you eight place.
The same final score development as for the women can be seen here, up 2.5 p since Barcelona. Taken away a few outliers, the increase has remained steady over the years and even seems to tighten up somewhat. The last few years show most scores within a smaller spread than before, especially visible in the chart over averages and standard deviations. Shorter range means scores were tighter together. The trend seems to be that final scores are stabilizing on a level of 102-104 p, which is the same for both men and women.
One outlier from the final in London has been removed since it was so far outside of all other scores (see the scatter plot) and skewed the results a lot. Also: be aware of the different y-axis when comparing men and women.
airrifleshooting 